Generational tipping point: 2021

ABSTRACT

After defining the concept of "social force," some instances of its withdrawal are observed to precede significant social change; causation is conjectured.

An argument is presented, regarding the Strauss-Howe generations, that their final birth year has importance for understanding social change. This birth year's attainment of various threshold ages is observed to correlate with major historical events. In particular, regarding the final birth year, 61 and 71 years of age are seen to accompany a major and minor diminishment in social influence, respectively, for the entire generation.

Finally, based on this, a prediction is made that in the year 2021 the Baby Boom generation's power will diminish, in a major way.

INTRODUCTION

The year 2021 will be a tipping point, away from some of the "craziness" which has been developing continually in the past several decades.

To justify this unexpected prediction, first I'll touch on the topic of social force; then I'll pursue in some depth the topic of generations.

SOCIAL FORCE

Potential social phenomena involve two kinds of social force: one kind that supports, and another kind that resists.

To actually exist, any given phenomenon requires some force to support it (of course). Also, any resisting force must either have withdrawn voluntarily, or else it must have been overpowered. Only then will we see the phenomenon. This view focuses on the static forces involved, and resembles the analysis of static forces in civil engineering.

The removal of a phenomenon is also a phenomenon. The existence of the new phenomenon (which is precisely the absence of the old phenomenon) follows the same static force rules as above. This symmetry is both simplifying and useful.

A dynamic view of forces is useful for understanding social change. Even allowing for mass, inertia, and variable rates of adoption and learning, still the gradual actualization or disappearance of a phenomenon can occur only after some force has been added, or after another force has been withdrawn—or both.

Albeit less known, the second kind of action—the withdrawal of a force—is the focus of this article.

GENERATIONS

Generations, in the Strauss-Howe hypothesis, are cultural and psychological phenomena, irregular in their timing. Each comprises a distinct range of birth years. Their defining boundary years don't match (perhaps naturally) those chosen by most demographers.

Each generation's earlier half (loosely speaking) is called the first wave; its latter half is called the last wave.

The Strauss-Howe generations come in four types; they cycle in the following order:

        Damaged,  Together,  Smooth,  Authentic

(These names are my own.) Each name describes that type's basic, differentiating psychological characteristic.

These arise presumably because each generation (of that type) received particular rewards for expressing that characteristic in childhood.

Initially, each generation is raised by the second-previous generation. This fact, interpreted through peer group influence, "sets the pattern" of its basic characteristic. (Its later-born members are raised by the immediately-previous generation.)

Thus—in some way—as children:

• With preponderantly last wave Smooth-generation parents, the Damaged generations' first wave is rewarded for being completely and grittily realistic;

• With preponderantly last wave Authentic-generation parents, the Together generations' first wave is rewarded for playing cooperatively with playmates;

• With preponderantly last wave Damaged-generation parents, the Smooth generations' first wave is rewarded for calming their parents; and

• With preponderantly last wave Together-generation parents, the Authentic generations' first wave is rewarded for expressing their deepest, most honest reactions.

In the run-up to the American Civil War, an exceptional cycle elided its Together generation. Thus:

• First born in 1843, although with preponderantly last wave Transcendental (Authentic) generation parents, the Progressive (Smooth) generation's first wave was rewarded as usual for calming their parents; and

• First born in 1860, although with preponderantly last wave Gilded (Damaged) generation parents, the Missionary (Authentic) generation's first wave was rewarded as usual for expressing their deepest, most honest reactions.

By elderhood, each generation type's differentiating characteristic becomes an evolved version of its basic characteristic—so that:

• The Damaged generation type protects society from damage arising from widespread, unconstrained behavior and external threat;

• The Together generation type confidently (and hugely) reaps rewards bestowable by government;

• The Smooth generation type aids individuals through broad governmental power: promoting and preserving rights, freedoms, and protections; and

• The Authentic generation type destroys society through its individuals' stubborn, independent sense of what's right (idealism): and therefore, through their own, selfish greed.

In the cycle overall, the Damaged generation type—when its power is greatest (and least opposed)—repairs some of the damage inflicted by the previous cycle, and establishes a new, working social order. Then, by turns—each, when its power is greatest—the Together, Smooth, and Authentic generation types increasingly damage that order, and tear it apart.

EVENT YEARS

The concept of an "event year", here, is that of a generation altering its deployment of social forces in a major way. Either its last birth-year cohort finally withdraws a social force, or, less importantly, its first birth-year cohort adds one.

Regarding the following list of familiar, recent generations, my idea is for you to try to connect the "Event-Years", at the left edge of their associated charts, to any historical events which come to mind, which occurred soon afterward (perhaps within ten years):

• The Millennial generation:

      Event-Year  =  Edge-Birth-Year  +  Offset  –  Event  –  Generation  –  (Type)

      2016 = 1982 + 34 – manage business – Millennial generation – (Together)
      2000 = 1982 + 18 – upturn academia – Millennial generation – (Together)

• The Gen-X generation:

      1995 = 1961 + 34 – manage business – Gen-X generation – (Damaged)
      1979 = 1961 + 18 – upturn academia – Gen-X generation – (Damaged)

• The Baby Boom generation:

      1977 = 1943 + 34 – manage business – Baby Boom generation – (Authentic)
      1961 = 1943 + 18 – upturn academia – Baby Boom generation – (Authentic)

• The Silent generation:

      2013 = 1942 + 71 – abandon politics and academia – Silent generation – (Smooth)
      2003 = 1942 + 61 – abandon business – Silent generation – (Smooth)
      1959 = 1925 + 34 – manage business – Silent generation – (Smooth)
      1943 = 1925 + 18 – upturn academia – Silent generation – (Smooth)

• The G.I. generation:

      1995 = 1924 + 71 – abandon politics and academia – G.I. generation – (Together)
      1985 = 1924 + 61 – abandon business – G.I. generation – (Together)
      1935 = 1901 + 34 – manage business – G.I. generation – (Together)
      1919 = 1901 + 18 – upturn academia – G.I. generation – (Together)

• The Lost generation:

      1971 = 1900 + 71 – abandon politics and academia – Lost generation – (Damaged)
      1961 = 1900 + 61 – abandon business – Lost generation – (Damaged)
      1917 = 1883 + 34 – manage business – Lost generation – (Damaged)
      1901 = 1883 + 18 – upturn academia – Lost generation – (Damaged)

Why pick these particular numbers as the offsets? Because these are my best assessments of when the corresponding cultural sea changes actually occurred. In other words, why pick:

• 71 years, for when control of politics and academia is basically abandoned? This is based on my own tentative observations regarding power in the U.S. Senate, and influential professors;

• 61 years, for when business control is basically abandoned? It can't be later, because significant events occurred precisely in the predicted sea change years of 1985, 1961, 1943 and 1648 (see below);

• 34 years, for when a presence in business middle management begins? Because, for the predicted sea change years of:

  • 1995, the Gen-X (Damaged) generation founded the popular, emailed (Matt) Drudge Report in that year;

  • 1977, the Baby Boom (Authentic) generation adopted a success-oriented lifestyle, including attendance at disco music dance halls, with the release of the film, "Saturday Night Fever" in that year; and

  • 1959, the Silent (Smooth) generation responded to Volkswagen's "Think small" Beetle advertisement, which spearheaded advertising's Creative Revolution in that year; and

• 18 years, for when student presence in academia begins? It can't be earlier, because the youngest significant college attendance happens then.

Now, let's focus on the "abandon business" events:

        2003 = 1942 + 61 – abandon business – Silent generation – (Smooth)
        1985 = 1924 + 61 – abandon business – G.I. generation – (Together)
        1961 = 1900 + 61 – abandon business – Lost generation – (Damaged)
        1943 = 1882 + 61 – abandon business – Missionary generation – (Authentic)
        1920 = 1859 + 61 – abandon business – Progressive generation – (Smooth)
        1903 = 1842 + 61 – abandon business – Gilded generation – (Damaged)
        1882 = 1821 + 61 – abandon business – Transcendental generation – (Authentic)
        1852 = 1791 + 61 – abandon business – Compromise generation – (Smooth)
        1827 = 1766 + 61 – abandon business – Republican generation – (Together)
        1802 = 1741 + 61 – abandon business – Liberty generation – (Damaged)
        1784 = 1723 + 61 – abandon business – Awakening generation – (Authentic)
        1761 = 1700 + 61 – abandon business – Enlightenment generation – (Smooth)
        1734 = 1673 + 61 – abandon business – Glorious generation – (Together)
        1708 = 1647 + 61 – abandon business – Cavalier generation – (Damaged)
        1678 = 1617 + 61 – abandon business – Puritan generation – (Authentic)
        1648 = 1587 + 61 – abandon business – Parliamentary generation – (Smooth)
        1626 = 1565 + 61 – abandon business – Elizabethan generation – (Together)
        1601 = 1540 + 61 – abandon business – Reprisal generation – (Damaged)
        1572 = 1511 + 61 – abandon business – Reformation generation – (Authentic)
        1543 = 1482 + 61 – abandon business – Humanist generation – (Smooth)
        1521 = 1460 + 61 – abandon business – Arthurian generation – (Together)

These are arguably the tipping points of greatest significance: when the social influence of that generation type basically ceases. Their influence then becomes sorely missed. For instance, the following generation types, by ceasing their influence, seem to have caused these corresponding events:

• The Silent (Smooth) generation in 2003 ceased "aid[ing] individuals through broad governmental power: promoting and preserving rights, freedoms, and protections."

  • This caused the financial sector's rules to evolve gradually toward increasing fraud and cheating of individual investors, including the ballooning of subprime mortgage lending beginning in 2004, eventually resulting in the Great Recession of 2008. And, it caused the Iraq War in 2003;

• The G.I. (Together) generation in 1985 ceased "confidently (and hugely) reap[ing] rewards bestowable by government."

  • This caused the creation of the Gramm-Rudman U.S. federal budget restrictions in 1985, and the U.S. Congressional PAYGO rules restricting expenditures in 1990. And, it caused Britain to sign the Single European Act, the beginnings of the European Union, in 1986;

• The Lost (Damaged) generation in 1961 ceased "protect[ing] society from damage arising from widespread, unconstrained behavior and external threat."

  • This caused social norms to be loosened, beginning in the 1960s. Noteworthy are the movies released beginning in 1961. And, it caused the U.S. Revenue Act of 1964, which reduced the top marginal tax rate to 77%. It had been at least 91% since 1951;

• The Missionary (Authentic) generation in 1943 ceased "destroy[ing] society through its individuals' stubborn, independent sense of what's right (idealism): and therefore, through their own, selfish greed."

  • This caused the world to stop pursuing its dreams of German, Italian and Japanese domination, and the Allies to gain momentum, both in 1943. And, it caused the era of New Deal Liberalism: cooperation among government, corporations and labor;

• The Progressive (Smooth) generation in 1920 ceased "aid[ing] individuals through broad governmental power: promoting and preserving rights, freedoms, and protections."

  • This caused the financial sector's rules to evolve gradually toward increasing fraud and cheating of individual investors, which eventually resulted in the Great Depression of the 1930s;

• The Compromise (Smooth) generation in 1852 ceased "aid[ing] individuals through broad governmental power: promoting and preserving rights, freedoms, and protections."

  • Regarding individuals who wished to settle safely in U.S. territories (and avoid war), this caused the Kansas–Nebraska Act of 1854, the decisive, uncompromising Dred Scott v. Sandford U.S. Supreme Court decision in 1857, and the American Civil War in 1861;

• The Enlightenment (Smooth) generation in 1761 ceased "aid[ing] individuals through broad governmental power: promoting and preserving rights, freedoms, and protections."

  • This caused the "long train of abuses and usurpations" of the American Revolution which began in 1765; and

• The Parliamentary (Smooth) generation in 1648 ceased "aid[ing] individuals through broad governmental power: promoting and preserving rights, freedoms, and protections."

  • Offending those individuals who disliked military takeover of government, this caused the imprisonment of Charles I for trial, and Pride's Purge which created the Rump Parliament, both in 1648.

The Authentic generation type's abandon-business events are of crucial importance:

        1943 = 1882 + 61 – abandon business – Missionary generation – (Authentic)
        1882 = 1821 + 61 – abandon business – Transcendental generation – (Authentic)
        1784 = 1723 + 61 – abandon business – Awakening generation – (Authentic)
        1678 = 1617 + 61 – abandon business – Puritan generation – (Authentic)
        1572 = 1511 + 61 – abandon business – Reformation generation – (Authentic)

Again, social change is often caused by the withdrawal of a force. Thus:

• For the Missionary (Authentic) generation—see above;

• The Transcendental (Authentic) generation abandoned business in 1882, thus lessening idealism; this caused the disenfranchisement of blacks after the Reconstruction era;

• The Awakening (Authentic) generation abandoned business in 1784, thus lessening selfishness; this caused the U.S. Constitutional Convention in 1787;

• The Puritan (Authentic) generation abandoned business in 1678, thus lessening idealism; this caused Britain's Glorious Revolution of 1688; and

• The Reformation (Authentic) generation abandoned business in 1572, thus lessening idealism; this caused the first successful Elizabethan London theaters to open in 1576.

Note that each such tipping point—when an Authentic generation abandons business—completes a period of great conflict.

PREDICTION

Finally, most important is the next such tipping point. It will be:

        2021 = 1960 + 61 – abandon business – Baby Boom generation – (Authentic)

Therefore, next year, in 2021, the world will change, in a major way—regardless of whoever wins the U.S. presidential election.

At that upcoming tipping point, the world's craziness—its idealism and selfishness—will slowly cease. Our large corporate businesses will be helmed by enough members of the Gen-X (Damaged) generation for the world to grow sensible and safe again.

Consider all of the Gen-X directed projects, cultural and otherwise, that we've seen recently. These foreshadow the nature, of course, of the upcoming Gen-X order.

Copyright (c) 2020 Mark D. Blackwell.