Saturday, January 10, 2009

Obama's landslide ranking among U.S. Electoral College first-term votes

Obama's 2008 landslide election achievement ranks a good 16th-best among the 34 first-term U.S. presidents. Over all 56 elected presidential terms, Obama ranks 32nd-best.

The rankings seem important in measuring the 'mood of the country' regarding the immediately-previous president's policies. The size of the landslide may give some insight into how dissatisfied we were at the time. The rankings are expressed here as ratios formed from the number of Electoral College votes received, and the votes needed to win, rounded to three decimal places.

Obama ranks below only the presidents: Washington, Reagan, Roosevelt (1932), Pierce, Monroe, Hoover, Eisenhower, Wilson, Harrison (1840), Bush (1988), Harding, Grant, Madison, Clinton, and Jackson.

Obama ranks above the presidents: Taft, Polk, McKinley, Lincoln, Buchanan, Harrison (1888), Garfield, Van Buren, Kennedy, Taylor, Nixon, Carter, Cleveland, Jefferson, Adams (1796), Bush (2000), Hayes, and Adams (1824).

On December 15, 2008, the Electoral College, comprising electors selected by each state, met together and voted. On January 8, 2009, "Vice President Dick Cheney, in his role as Senate president,"(A) "led a Senate delegation into the House chamber, along with teenage pages carrying two mahogany boxes containing the certified vote totals of each state."(B)

"'Pursuant to the Constitution and laws of the United States, the Senate and House of Representatives are meeting in joint session to verify the certificates and count the votes of the electors of the several states,' Cheney intoned in opening the session."(B) He then "sat on the podium next to"(B) House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and "handed the certificates from each state's electors to the"(B) "four 'tellers,' two members each from the House and Senate,"(B) "to be read and tallied,"(B) who "then commenced reading the votes from each state."(B) After 30 minutes, Cheney announced that Congress had certified and tallied, finally, the Electoral College's votes from each state as reflected here.

Here are the landslide rankings for all the elected, first-term presidents:

year received needed-to-win name ratio rank
1789 69 35 Washington 1.971 1
1980 489 270 Reagan 1.811 2
1932 472 266 Roosevelt 1.774 3
1852 254 149 Pierce 1.705 4
1816 183 109 Monroe 1.679 5
1928 444 266 Hoover 1.669 6
1952 442 266 Eisenhower 1.662 7
1912 435 266 Wilson 1.635 8
1840 234 148 Harrison 1.581 9
1988 426 270 Bush 1.578 10
1920 404 266 Harding 1.519 11
1868 214 148 Grant 1.446 12
1808 122 88 Madison 1.386 13
1992 370 270 Clinton 1.370 14
1828 178 131 Jackson 1.359 15
2008 365 270 Obama 1.352 16
1908 321 242 Taft 1.326 17
1844 170 138 Polk 1.232 18
1896 271 224 McKinley 1.210 19
1860 180 152 Lincoln 1.184 20
1856 174 149 Buchanan 1.168 21
1888 233 201 Harrison 1.159 22
1880 214 185 Garfield 1.157 23
1836 170 148 Van Buren 1.149 24
1960 303 269 Kennedy 1.126 25
1848 163 146 Taylor 1.116 26
1968 301 270 Nixon 1.115 27
1976 297 270 Carter 1.100 28
1884 219 201 Cleveland 1.090 29
1800 73 70 Jefferson 1.043 30
1796 71 69 Adams 1.029 31
2000 271 270 Bush 1.004 32
1876 185 185 Hayes 1.000 33
1824 84 131 Adams 0.641 34

Here are the landslide rankings of all the elected, presidential terms:

year received needed-to-win name ratio rank
1789 69 35 Washington 1.971 1
1792 132 67 Washington 1.970 2
1936 523 266 Roosevelt 1.966 3
1820 231 118 Monroe 1.958 4
1984 525 270 Reagan 1.944 5
1972 520 270 Nixon 1.926 6
1804 162 89 Jefferson 1.820 7
1864 212 117 Lincoln 1.812 8
1980 489 270 Reagan 1.811 9
1964 486 270 Johnson 1.800 10
1932 472 266 Roosevelt 1.774 11
1956 457 266 Eisenhower 1.718 12
1852 254 149 Pierce 1.705 13
1940 449 266 Roosevelt 1.688 14
1816 183 109 Monroe 1.679 15
1928 444 266 Hoover 1.669 16
1952 442 266 Eisenhower 1.662 17
1912 435 266 Wilson 1.635 18
1944 432 266 Roosevelt 1.624 19
1872 286 177 Grant 1.616 20
1840 234 148 Harrison 1.581 21
1988 426 270 Bush 1.578 22
1832 219 144 Jackson 1.521 23
1920 404 266 Harding 1.519 24
1868 214 148 Grant 1.446 25
1924 382 266 Coolidge 1.436 26
1904 336 239 Roosevelt 1.406 27
1996 379 270 Clinton 1.404 28
1808 122 88 Madison 1.386 29
1992 370 270 Clinton 1.370 30
1828 178 131 Jackson 1.359 31
2008 365 270 Obama 1.352 32
1908 321 242 Taft 1.326 33
1900 292 224 McKinley 1.304 34
1892 277 223 Cleveland 1.242 35
1844 170 138 Polk 1.232 36
1896 271 224 McKinley 1.210 37
1860 180 152 Lincoln 1.184 38
1812 128 109 Madison 1.174 39
1856 174 149 Buchanan 1.168 40
1888 233 201 Harrison 1.159 41
1880 214 185 Garfield 1.157 42
1836 170 148 Van Buren 1.149 43
1948 303 266 Truman 1.139 44
1960 303 269 Kennedy 1.126 45
1848 163 146 Taylor 1.116 46
1968 301 270 Nixon 1.115 47
1976 297 270 Carter 1.100 48
1884 219 201 Cleveland 1.090 49
2004 286 270 Bush 1.059 50
1800 73 70 Jefferson 1.043 51
1916 277 266 Wilson 1.041 52
1796 71 69 Adams 1.029 53
2000 271 270 Bush 1.004 54
1876 185 185 Hayes 1.000 55
1824 84 131 Adams 0.641 56

Here is the raw data about all of the presidential elections:

year received needed-to-win name ratio
1789 69 35 Washington 1.971
1792 132 67 Washington 1.970
1796 71 69 Adams 1.029
1800 73 70 Jefferson 1.043
1804 162 89 Jefferson 1.820
1808 122 88 Madison 1.386
1812 128 109 Madison 1.174
1816 183 109 Monroe 1.679
1820 231 118 Monroe 1.958
1824 84 131 Adams 0.641
1828 178 131 Jackson 1.359
1832 219 144 Jackson 1.521
1836 170 148 Van Buren 1.149
1840 234 148 Harrison 1.581
1844 170 138 Polk 1.232
1848 163 146 Taylor 1.116
1852 254 149 Pierce 1.705
1856 174 149 Buchanan 1.168
1860 180 152 Lincoln 1.184
1864 212 117 Lincoln 1.812
1868 214 148 Grant 1.446
1872 286 177 Grant 1.616
1876 185 185 Hayes 1.000
1880 214 185 Garfield 1.157
1884 219 201 Cleveland 1.090
1888 233 201 Harrison 1.159
1892 277 223 Cleveland 1.242
1896 271 224 McKinley 1.210
1900 292 224 McKinley 1.304
1904 336 239 Roosevelt 1.406
1908 321 242 Taft 1.326
1912 435 266 Wilson 1.635
1916 277 266 Wilson 1.041
1920 404 266 Harding 1.519
1924 382 266 Coolidge 1.436
1928 444 266 Hoover 1.669
1932 472 266 Roosevelt 1.774
1936 523 266 Roosevelt 1.966
1940 449 266 Roosevelt 1.688
1944 432 266 Roosevelt 1.624
1948 303 266 Truman 1.139
1952 442 266 Eisenhower 1.662
1956 457 266 Eisenhower 1.718
1960 303 269 Kennedy 1.126
1964 486 270 Johnson 1.800
1968 301 270 Nixon 1.115
1972 520 270 Nixon 1.926
1976 297 270 Carter 1.100
1980 489 270 Reagan 1.811
1984 525 270 Reagan 1.944
1988 426 270 Bush 1.578
1992 370 270 Clinton 1.370
1996 379 270 Clinton 1.404
2000 271 270 Bush 1.004
2004 286 270 Bush 1.059
2008 365 270 Obama 1.352

Sources:
http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/votes/index.html
(A) http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/01/09/\
its_official_congress_certifies_obamas_victory/
(B) http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090108/ap_on_go_pr_wh/electoral_votes
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)
See also:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/ec_graph-2008.html
http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/obamas_landslide/
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/\
List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_Electoral_College_margin

Copyright (c) 2009 Mark D. Blackwell.

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